Trend Fly

RandyR

New Member
The rules above say > 14 DTE.

But, I started looking at the trade results posted at http://www.whiterockusa.com/iron-butterfly.php and I see many trades that are < 14 DTE. For example, the very first trade is entered on 2/14/17 and uses the 2/24/17 expiration (only 10 DTE).

Also, I started performing my own verification of the trade results posted and I would not trust their results. Or, at least not trust that the results posted are due to following the rules in the video (and above). A few reasons why I wouldn't trust their results:
  1. Several trades start out with < 14 DTE.
  2. Several trades are closed for a loss, but not at the specified 1.3 x initial credit.
  3. Number of contracts is calculated based on Cumm (last column of the trade results), but Cumm is not accurate as of the time of open. For example, the Cumm for the 2nd trade posted is 102,036 which is calculated by adding the trade Net, 10,336 to the previous Cumm, 91,700. Then that Cumm for the 2nd trade is used to calculate the number of contracts for the 3rd trade, 102,036 / 2 / (3.00 * 100) = 170. The problem is the 2nd trade isn't closed until 2/28 and the 3rd trade is opened on 2/16, so the result of the 2nd trade could not be used to calculate the number of contracts to use for the 3rd trade.
  4. Several trades are closed for a profit, but not at the specified .10 x initial credit.
  5. Some trades don't make sense (see the 3 Put credit spread trades on 4/3, those 3 trades would have required $152,500 in margin and the Cumm was only ~$107,000). Another example is the trade opened on 4/6 and closed on 4/5 (not possible without a time machine and if we had one of those, we wouldn't need any of these strategies).
 
Last edited:
Top